Pigskin Prognostications, Super Bowl XLIII

Offense vs. Defense. The Cardinals' three thousand-yard receivers and two-time NFL MVP QB versus the best defense in football (which includes this year's Defensive MVP--linebacker James Harrison). Who wins this one*?

Vegas has already set the line: Pittsburgh -6 1/2. I've already heard TV analysts giving this one to Pittsburgh. Remember, though, Arizona has been the underdog--heavy underdog--in each of its three postseason games thus far. Arizona has also faced completely different teams in terms of both offensive and defensive philosophies. Atlanta played smashmouth run with precise play-action passes on offense and a read-and-react defense. Carolina played cutback run with deep-ball throws to Steve Smith on offense and an attacking--occasionally blitzing--defense. Philly played a draw/cutback run and screen/slant (Curtis)/deep-ball (Jackson) pass on offense and a blitz-heavy defense. Arizona's played--and beat--them all. Philly gave 'em the most trouble, but their defense failed more in individual breakdowns than it did in philosophy, and that was only on a couple of big plays. So, Arizona should handle Pittsburgh pretty well, right? Right? Let's see.

On defense, Arizona should fare well. Pittsburgh's O-line isn't the massive one Philly's is, and their left tackle's not as quick, either. Arizona should do better rushing the passer. Stopping the run? Well, Philly probably could have eventually run it well, but they gave up on that one pretty soon; Pittsburgh won't. Even when they don't run it well, they still run it. So expect Pittsburgh to gain more on the ground against Arizona than Philly did. They shouldn't run for any tremendous gains, though, as Arizona's defense is well-disciplined now (what in the world turned their season around defensively?), and their D-tackle Darnell Dockett's as tough as they come. I don't think Parker will gash them, and I don't think he'll amass over one-hundred on them (unless, of course, Pittsburgh's got the game well in hand by the time the third-quarter's halfway through). I think for Pittsburgh to succeed on offense, it'll have to be through the air.

Pittsburgh's offense works best on the fly. Roethlisberger loves to throw it deep to Holmes (and occasionally Washington), and he's a fantastic--and accurate--improviser on the run. This is Arizona's weak spot defensively (during the post-season); their linebackers and safeties have had a tendency to lose focus whenever the play goes awry. They (the Arizona D) can be had on play-action fakes and pump fakes and QB scrambles because it seems as if they are coached so well to stay disciplined to stay in their zones that receivers can fly right by at times. As long as Arizona can bottle up the Pittsburgh running game early and control it with their front seven, then Roetlisberger will have to relegated to throw it to Hines Ward (if he plays) on the curls and out routes, and mosey down the field that way. If that happens--if Arizona can let Pittsburgh play ball control without allowing any big plays, then Arizona's D will have done it's job well. Barring any defense scoring (yeah, I know) or short fields (from turnovers or the kicking game), Arizona should be able to limit Pittsburgh's offense to seventeen-or-fewer points. Should.

Now--and here comes the fun part, the facet of the game that everyone wants to see, including me--Arizona's offense versus Pittsburgh's defense.

Pittsburgh's defense is similar to Philadelphia's in that both disguise their blitzes and coverages and change them up nearly every single play. In that aspect, Warner shouldn't worry too much because he carved up Philly's defense for twenty-four points in the first half (and would have carved them for much more in the second half had Arizona not decided to play so conservatively). Warner's experience will serve him well, as he should be able to recognize (and call for) coverage quickly, and he will have his hot reads identified. He's got a quick release, and in the Philly playoff game, it was timed--well-timed.

However, Pittsburgh plays a three-four, meaning more linebackers dropping in coverage. Plus, Pittsburgh sports the best linebacking crew in the league--no other teams come close to the talent Pittsburgh has there. They're faster, they're harder hitters, and they're smarter--at least they play that way. Warner's faced a three-four once this year (that I know of): the Jets' D. Warner turned the ball over six times (three picks, three fumbles) against that defense (albeit that was in week four)--and they weren't (aren't) as good as Pittsburgh's front seven (or eleven).

On top of that, Pittsburgh's got the best strong safety in the league: Troy Polamalu. Part of Polamalu's greatness comes from his versatility: he's fast (and quick) enough to excell in coverage, in space, and he can hit and tackle as well as any linebacker on the Steeler squad. LeBeau uses Polamalu all over the place. Mainly, of course, in position, but he's lined up at corner, and at DE, and at linebacker. I've seen him play right over center and then drop back twenty yards and intercept a ball. Harrison's almost as versatile, and with him (Harrison) playing the weak side and Polamalu playing the strong side, teams have found it difficult (and some--like Baltimore--next to impossible) to throw consistently (or consistently well) against them.

One team did, though: Indianapolis. Peyton Manning complete twenty-one passes for two-hundred-and-forty yards and three touchdowns against the Steelers in week ten...and no interceptions. He didn't fumble, and he was only sacked twice. I mention that game because Arizona's offense bears a striking similarity to Indianapolis's. Both favor three-wide-receiver sets with a TE. Arizona runs a traditional (two WRs, one TE, one FB, one HB) offense more often than Indy does, but the Cardinals will go for long stretches (normal stretches--meaning not hurry-up) using the Indy offensive set, employing the quick release when a full blitz is coming. A few differences, though: Indy throws to their TE often from this set; Arizona does not. Primarily, that's because Dallas Clark is an all-pro, and none of Arizona's TEs are anywhere near Clark's level of talent.

Still, though, Arizona can beat Pittsburgh through the air. Their wide receivers--especially Fitzgerald--are so talented that Pittsburgh must commit more players to them than they'd like. I'm not saying that Pittsburgh will; I'm saying that they must. Philly played the single-coverage/blitz Warner-into-making-mistakes game, and Warner torched them. I think if LeBeau uses Jim Johnson's strategy, then Arizona's gonna score and score early and score often. Again, though, Pittsburgh's D is better--almost to a player (corners notwithstanding)--than Philly's D, and perhaps LeBeau will count on his players' talent to overcome the Arizona O-line so much that Warner won't have time to hit his hot reads (or Fitzgerald, even though Fitzgerald often is Warner's hot read). I don't think so, though. I think LeBeau will bump Arizona's receivers at the line and clog all the short-to-intermediate zones, making Warner hold on to the ball until the deep routes are open, hoping that by this time the pocket will collapse, as LeBeau will--on most plays--blitz at least two players. At least, that's what I'd do if I had Pittsburgh's D, and I wanted to beat Arizona.

Since I don't know what LeBeau will do (and neither does anybody on Arizona's team, either), I'll say that he employs the partial blitz/take-away-the-short-routes scheme at least half the time, and that he'll force Warner into a couple of picks (at least), and that one of these will either be returned for a touchdown or will give Pittsburgh significant field position. I'll also say that Warner finds a way to get the ball to Fitzgerald or Boldin or Breaston for at least two scores and maybe a couple of long strikes or several mid-rangers for long drives, and that Arizona scores three touchdowns on offense. Plus a field goal.

Then we have special teams. Arizona's Neil Rackers's kickoffs...uh...need to improve. If he kicks it out-of-bounds and gives Pittsburgh the ball at the forty yard line more than once, then Arizona's going to be in for a long night. Similarly, if Mitch Berger's punting doesn't improve, then Arizona's gonna have a fun time scoring all night. I'll give this nod to Arizona, 'cause if both are given good field position, then Arizona's more likely to score than Pittsburgh.

So, let's see, what do we have: I have Pittsburgh scoring about thirteen on offense (I don't think they'll hit the seventeen) alone, one short-field (provided by their defense) touchdown, and one defensive touchdown. That's twenty-seven. I have Arizona scoring twenty-four on offense alone, and a short-field (thanks Mitch Berger) field goal. That's twenty-seven. Since the game's not going to end in a tie, and all things are even, then I'm going with a factor I haven't mentioned yet: coaching. Both are fine motivators, yadda yadda yadda, but Whisenhunt spent six years coaching in Pittsburgh, his last three as offensive coordinator. Does this give him somewhat of an edge? Well, considering how closely he worked with Roethlisberger and Ward (and against Polamalu and Townsend and Farrior and Foote on D in practice), then I'll say it does. I slight edge. Three points worth, even.

Final score: Cardinals 30, Steelers 27.

*Note: In all fairness, I must say that I'm a Cardinals fan, and that if I were a Steeler fan, I might--might--see the final score going the other way...and with a larger differential.