Fifth Down, Championship Games

What a Sunday! Two great games, and I correctly predicted both games' winners--both of whom I like. I'm pulling for the Cards, though. If only Jake were still around....

My original comments/predictions in italics:


Cardinals 24, Eagles 21 - I've read most of the predictions, and most make this one an easy victory for Philly, most likely based on Philly's thrashing of Arizona a few weeks ago. However, much like the Colts three years ago when they won the Super Bowl, Arizona's defense is peaking at the right time, stopping the run and running it much more then they did during the regular season, playing more ball control. I've heard about the Westbrook factor, but if the Redbirds can bottle up Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams, then they should be able to contain Westbrook, too. What worries me--'cause I'm a Cardinals fan--is the humungous Philly O-line, the biggest in the league. Arizona's D-line is built more for mauling than it is for jetting around the edges, and I think McNabb will have ample time to throw. If Arizona can bump Philly's receivers at the line, get them off their routes, then I think Arizona's zone schemes can work, 'cause Philly's receivers are rather smallish, and they can be jammed.

On the other side of the ball, Warner's faced Jim Johnson's defense before this year, and I don't think he'll have the same problems, as surely--surely--Arizona will keep a back (or two) to protect Warner on his throws, and if Warner has time, he'll produce more than McNabb will, as Arizona's receivers are much better at running precise routes and catching the ball than Philly's. I don't think Arizona will run the ball well, but I do think they'll run it consistently--or at least they should, otherwise the Eagles will kill Warner. I think Arizona, though, learned its lesson from its last loss to Philly, and I think the Redbirds will prevail.

McNabb did have ample time to throw, but his throws--most of 'em, especially in the first half--were mis-timed, overthrown, or underthrown. Philly ran the ball eighteen times for ninety-seven total yards--as a team. Arizona stymied Westbrook and Buckhalter, and McNabb was the only one that gashed them on the run (one twenty-one yard scamper), and that was early. Speaking of McNabb, he threw the ball forty-seven times, and when a QB throws it that many times--especially in a playoff game--the outcome is usually not favorable because the defense knows it's playing pass, and the play-action passes don't work, and the safeties and linebackers play better in coverage, and the short slants and screens and circle routes don't work as well because the defense can stay in coverage without worrying about the run.

And that's what happened on Philly's last drive, and on their last offensive play. Curtis had to fight to get off his defender, and he couldn't get to the ball in time (and I'm not sure he could have caught in anyway, 'cause McNabb threw it high), 'cause the coverage was close and tight because there was no separation, and there was no separation because the Eagles were working against the clock and 'zona knew McNabb was going to pass it, and their defenders didn't have to worry about the run.

As far as the Cardinals' offense goes: twenty-eight runs, twenty-nine passes--about as balanced as an offense can get. The runs kept the play-action passes going, and even when Warner dropped straight back, the defense couldn't immediately play pass because Arizona had run the ball consistently (and ran it well early). Thus, Arizona takes a gigantic early lead, and the Eagles were too far behind to catch up by the end of the game.

Of course, having Larry Fitzgerald catching those passes from Warner made a humongous difference, but the Eagles knew that Fitzgerald would be getting the ball early and often, and yet they still left him in single coverage (Asante Samuel is good, but he's not that good)--what was Jim Johnson thinking?

Final score: Cardinals 32, Eagles 25

Steelers 20, Ravens 16 - If both teams play at about the same level of intensity, discipline, and aptitude this week as they did last, then Pittsburgh will slaughter Baltimore, as Baltimore's offense played an ug-ly game against Tennessee--and the Steeler's are better defensively than Tennessee. Maybe offensively, too. I think, though, that Baltimore improves its offense, and I think they'll cause a couple of turnovers, with Ed Reed returning one for a score, but I really don't see them scoring an offensive touchdown against Pittsburgh (not unless Pitssburgh gives it to 'em in scoring territory), as the Chargers had one good drive against Pittsburgh's starters--and that was the very first one. Heck, San Diego only had the ball once during the third quarter...ONCE! San Diego's offense is much better than Baltimore's.
As far as the Pittsburgh offense--Fast Willie Parker's no longer as fast as he used to be, so he won't gash Baltimore's defense the way Chris Johnson did (before he got hurt), but he can move it well enough to keep Reed and Jim Leonhard close to the line for Roethlisberger to be able to thread the zone or get some single-coverage a few times so that Holmes and Washington--faster than the Ravens' CBs--can fly loose. A think a few big plays is all Pittsburgh will need.

Okay, I didn't call this one as well as I did the NFC game, 'cause--especially late--the Ravens were able to run on Pittsburgh, but Pittsburgh's running attack--and Roethlisberger's multiple looks and head turns--did keep Reed from being a factor (only two tackles and nothing else), and Holmes did manage to get deep once; however, that alone wasn't enough to win the game for Pittsburgh. Their defense--especially in the second half--did that. They confounded and confused Joe Flacco all game, and in the fourth quarter, with the game still tight, Flacco threw it away twice, one going back for a touchdown (by Polamalu).

Before the game, some analyst--and it's going to bug me that I can't remember who--stated that Flacco's inexperience would be the Raven's downfall. This analyst--I think it was someone on the NFL Network, perhaps Steve Mariucci--recalled that Ben Roethlisberger--in his rookie year--took Pittsburgh to the AFC Championship game, and he thereby lost that game, throwing three interceptions. Mariucci (or whoever) finished by saying that he foresaw the same thing happening here, that Flacco--as unflappable as he seems--just didn't have the experience necessary to top this defense in this type of game. Well I'll be doggone if he didn't nail it. Right on the head.

If indeed it was Mariucci, then perhaps some team might think about looking at him next year for a head-coaching job. Dude knows his stuff.

Final score: Steelers 23, Ravens 14