5th Down

Oh, noes! Not again! When Tom Brady went down in the first quarter Sunday and was led to the locker room, I knew I was doomed. They showed the replay, and the hit looked nasty. His knee was toast. My #1 pick--the first pick overall--done for the year in the first quarter of the first game of the year. In my fifteen years of playing fantasy football, this year was the only one in which I'd had the first pick overall; and he's gone.

The last time I had a pick anywhere near the top was back in 1999. I had the third pick, and I chose Vinny Testaverde, quarterback (then) for the Bill Parcells-coached New York Jets. The year before, Vinny posted the highest number of yards and touchdowns of any quarterback in the league, and the Jets made the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. The subsequent off-season was good for them, too, and many sportswriters predicted a Super Bowl season for them in '99; so, I was very confident with my pick. Know what happened? Second quarter of the first game, Testaverde injures his knee, and he's gone for the year...and so was my fantasy football team.

I hope that year for me doesn't completely foreshadow this one, but the first week's results don't look too promising. I won my first match, but only because my opponent always drafts terribly and performs poorly durng the first two or three weeks of the season. My score: 115.55. The lowest score--winning or losing--from all the other matches: 115.90. Thank goodness we rank according to head-to-head matches, not on total number of points, for if we ranked according to the latter method, then I'd be next to last this week. Oy vey.

How'd I do with my picks? Let's see (my original predictions in italics):

1. Giants 24, Redskins 13 - 'Skins offense too anemic, and the returning champs roll - Win. I wasn't too far off: the actual score: Giants 16, Redskins 7.

2. Lions 23, Falcons 10 - If Atlanta played a legitimate team, this game would be a blowout - Loss. I--and about every sportswriter out there--completely blew this pick. The Falcons looked great--especially the running game--and the Lions looked worse than last year. Actual score: Falcons 34, Lions 21.

3. Bengals 20, Ravens 13 - Flacco will be flaccid for Baltimore, but their D will score - Loss. Flacco controlled the game, and the Bengals haven't played this poorly since before Carson Palmer came aboard. Actual score: Ravens 17, Bengals 10.

4. Seahawks 24, Bills 13 - Buffalo's QB Edwards has no protection from Seattle's defense - Loss. Another team with high expectations--Seattle--stunk it up, though their lack of healthy receivers could be blamed for part of the poor play, but where was their D? Buffalo (and their special teams) played better here than in any full game they played the last three years. Actual score: Bills 34, Seahawks 10.

5. Jets 27, Miami 17 - As improved as Miami is, they're too Farve behind to keep it close - Win. The game was closer than I thought it would be. Farve's play-action td pass to Cotchery was a thing of beauty. Actual score: Jets 20, Dolphins 14.

6. Patiots 34, Chiefs 9 - Brady's bad ankle? A figment of Kansas City's imagination - Win. Yeah, the bad ankle was a figment, but that knee...AARRGH! Actual score: Patriots 17, Chiefs 10.

7. Saints 24, Bucs 20 - Tampa's D will score, but Brees & co. have too much offense to contain - Win. Nailed this one to the wall. To. The. Wall. Actual score: Saints, 24, Bucs 20.

8. Eagles 31, Rams 10 - McNabb is renewed, and Philly's defense is, too. Win. Not too far off on this one, but I gave the Rams too much credit. Where was Torry Holt? Rams' coach Linehan's days are numbered. Actual score: Eagles 38, Rams 3.

9. Steelers 23, Texans 13 - If Houston could just put an O-line together.... Win. And if Houston could put a run defense together, then...they still would have lost. Actual score: Steelers 38, Texans 17.

10. Jaguars 20, Titans 16 - Tennessee's defense is fierce, but so is Vince Young's ineptitude Loss. The Jags' offensive ineptitude more than made up for Young's. Actual score: Titans 17, Jaguars 10.

11. Cowboys 31, Browns 21 - Cleveland's corners are too green to sTOp TO - Win. Dallas' D played better than expected, too. Actual score: Cowboys 28, Browns 10.

12. Chargers 20, Carolina 17 - If Steve Smith weren't suspended, this might go the other way - Loss. This did go the other way when Panthers QB Jake Delhomme threw the game winning touchdown pass to a backup tight end in the back of the end zone with no time left on the clock. That play--and the drive that started it--was the most exciting moment of the first week. Actual score: Panthers 26, Chargers 24.

13. Cardinals 24, 49ers 13 - S.F. will turn the ball over too much because of Marts's schemes - Win. Dang near nailed this one, too. Actual score: Cardinals 23, 49ers 13.

14. Colts 31, Bears 8 - Kyle Orton? Matt Forte? Against last year's #1 defense? Please. Loss. Uh...I guess so. Seriously, no one but the Bears predicted the outcome of this one correctly. Peyton looked panicky, and it made me sick. Where was the running game? Actual score: Bears 29, Colts 13.

15. Packers 17, Vikings 14 - Packers' O-line is much better than the Vikes' O-line - Win. I was wrong: the Packers' offensive line is not much better than the Vikings'; in fact, the Vikings' offensive line played really well. Their quarterback, however, did not. Actual score: Packers 24, Vikings 19.

16. Broncos 21, Raiders 3 - Shanahan can't decide on a running back, but it's the Raiders! - Win. Foolish me: never underestimate how much Shanahan hates Al Davis (and I was right about his running-back-by-committee-approach). Actual score: Broncos 41, Raiders 14.

What was my actual score? Ten wins and six losses. For the opening weekend, that's pretty good. If I can keep up that ratio, then I'll make it to the playoffs!

...but not in fantasy football, though. Ugh.